一、引言

在(zai)全球低(di)(di)碳(tan)博弈與低(di)(di)碳(tan)競爭的(de)國際背(bei)景下(xia)，中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國政府于2009年(nian)公布了(le)自主碳(tan)排(pai)放(fang)(fang)減緩行(xing)動(dong)(dong)(dong)目標，即到(dao)2020年(nian)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國單(dan)位(wei)(wei)GDP的(de)碳(tan)排(pai)放(fang)(fang)比2005年(nian)下(xia)降40%～45%;“十二五(wu)”規劃進(jin)一(yi)步明確提(ti)出了(le)單(dan)位(wei)(wei)GDP能耗(hao)(hao)(hao)降低(di)(di)16%和單(dan)位(wei)(wei)GDP碳(tan)排(pai)放(fang)(fang)降低(di)(di)17%的(de)目標。中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國工(gong)業生產具有明顯的(de)高(gao)能耗(hao)(hao)(hao)高(gao)排(pai)放(fang)(fang)低(di)(di)效(xiao)率的(de)粗(cu)放(fang)(fang)式特征(zheng)，工(gong)業是(shi)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國能源(yuan)消(xiao)耗(hao)(hao)(hao)和人(ren)為(wei)碳(tan)排(pai)放(fang)(fang)的(de)主要(yao)領域，占(zhan)GDP40%的(de)工(gong)業消(xiao)耗(hao)(hao)(hao)了(le)全國68%的(de)能源(yuan)，產生了(le)全國83%的(de)碳(tan)排(pai)放(fang)(fang)(陳詩一(yi)，2010)。從長期來看，基于能源(yuan)消(xiao)耗(hao)(hao)(hao)與要(yao)素投入驅動(dong)(dong)(dong)的(de)粗(cu)放(fang)(fang)式增長是(shi)不可持續的(de)，中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國必須加快經濟發(fa)展(zhan)方式轉變(bian)，著力通過節能減排(pai)來推動(dong)(dong)(dong)工(gong)業低(di)(di)碳(tan)發(fa)展(zhan)轉型。

研(yan)究(jiu)工(gong)(gong)業(ye)節(jie)(jie)能減排(pai)(pai)與(yu)(yu)低碳(tan)轉型，首先必須(xu)考察工(gong)(gong)業(ye)能源(yuan)消(xiao)費與(yu)(yu)碳(tan)排(pai)(pai)放(fang)(fang)的(de)(de)(de)歷史變遷與(yu)(yu)現狀。中國(guo)工(gong)(gong)業(ye)能源(yuan)消(xiao)費數(shu)(shu)據(ju)(ju)可從官方公開(kai)發布的(de)(de)(de)統(tong)計(ji)數(shu)(shu)據(ju)(ju)中獲取(qu)，但官方統(tong)計(ji)機構尚未發布工(gong)(gong)業(ye)碳(tan)排(pai)(pai)放(fang)(fang)數(shu)(shu)據(ju)(ju)，國(guo)際主要溫(wen)室氣體(ti)排(pai)(pai)放(fang)(fang)數(shu)(shu)據(ju)(ju)開(kai)發機構也沒有提(ti)供中國(guo)省區與(yu)(yu)行業(ye)碳(tan)排(pai)(pai)放(fang)(fang)數(shu)(shu)據(ju)(ju)①，需(xu)要研(yan)究(jiu)者選(xuan)擇(ze)合適的(de)(de)(de)方法自(zi)行估(gu)算。同時，由于中國(guo)不同地(di)(di)區、不同工(gong)(gong)業(ye)行業(ye)的(de)(de)(de)經濟增長模式與(yu)(yu)經濟發展水(shui)平差異較大，工(gong)(gong)業(ye)節(jie)(jie)能減排(pai)(pai)必須(xu)考慮不同地(di)(di)區、不同行業(ye)的(de)(de)(de)碳(tan)排(pai)(pai)放(fang)(fang)現狀及差異。因此，科學估(gu)算中國(guo)工(gong)(gong)業(ye)能源(yuan)碳(tan)排(pai)(pai)放(fang)(fang)的(de)(de)(de)地(di)(di)區、行業(ye)面板(ban)數(shu)(shu)據(ju)(ju)是(shi)進(jin)行低碳(tan)經濟研(yan)究(jiu)與(yu)(yu)決策的(de)(de)(de)一項基(ji)礎性(xing)工(gong)(gong)作(zuo)。

碳(tan)(tan)排(pai)放(fang)(fang)(fang)估(gu)算方法(fa)主(zhu)要(yao)有三種：實測(ce)(ce)(ce)法(fa)、模(mo)型(xing)(xing)法(fa)和衡(heng)算法(fa)。實測(ce)(ce)(ce)法(fa)以科學采樣和連續監測(ce)(ce)(ce)為(wei)基礎，但存在(zai)監測(ce)(ce)(ce)成本高(gao)、可靠(kao)性(xing)差等問(wen)題，難以推廣使用(yong)。模(mo)型(xing)(xing)法(fa)利用(yong)系統模(mo)型(xing)(xing)或(huo)綜合評價模(mo)型(xing)(xing)對碳(tan)(tan)排(pai)放(fang)(fang)(fang)進行估(gu)算和預測(ce)(ce)(ce)，比如《斯(si)特(te)恩(en)報告》中(zhong)的(de)PAGE模(mo)型(xing)(xing)(Stern，2007);模(mo)型(xing)(xing)設定及(ji)模(mo)型(xing)(xing)中(zhong)參數選(xuan)擇的(de)不確(que)定性(xing)會影(ying)響估(gu)算結果，主(zhu)要(yao)用(yong)于碳(tan)(tan)排(pai)放(fang)(fang)(fang)預測(ce)(ce)(ce)及(ji)碳(tan)(tan)減排(pai)政策評估(gu)(王燦(can)等，2005)。衡(heng)算法(fa)基于碳(tan)(tan)質量守恒定律②。相對于和等溫室氣體(ti)排(pai)放(fang)(fang)(fang)而言，排(pai)放(fang)(fang)(fang)因子主(zhu)要(yao)取決于燃(ran)(ran)(ran)料(liao)(liao)碳(tan)(tan)含量，而對燃(ran)(ran)(ran)燒技術與燃(ran)(ran)(ran)燒條件的(de)敏感(gan)性(xing)較低，基于燃(ran)(ran)(ran)料(liao)(liao)消費(fei)量和燃(ran)(ran)(ran)料(liao)(liao)碳(tan)(tan)含量，可對能源碳(tan)(tan)排(pai)放(fang)(fang)(fang)進行較為(wei)精確(que)的(de)估(gu)算。因此，衡(heng)算法(fa)在(zai)碳(tan)(tan)排(pai)放(fang)(fang)(fang)數據估(gu)算中(zhong)應用(yong)廣泛。

IPCC關于(yu)(yu)溫(wen)室(shi)(shi)氣(qi)體(ti)排(pai)放(fang)(fang)清(qing)單(dan)的(de)(de)(de)編(bian)制(zhi)也是基于(yu)(yu)衡(heng)算(suan)(suan)(suan)法，《IPCC國(guo)(guo)家(jia)溫(wen)室(shi)(shi)氣(qi)體(ti)清(qing)單(dan)編(bian)制(zhi)指(zhi)南》(IPCC，1995，1996，2006)以及(ji)(ji)《IPCC國(guo)(guo)家(jia)溫(wen)室(shi)(shi)氣(qi)體(ti)清(qing)單(dan)優良作(zuo)法指(zhi)南和(he)不(bu)確定性管理》(IPCC，2000)為(wei)各(ge)國(guo)(guo)溫(wen)室(shi)(shi)氣(qi)體(ti)排(pai)放(fang)(fang)核算(suan)(suan)(suan)提(ti)(ti)供了參考依據(ju)，并在實證(zheng)研(yan)究中(zhong)得(de)到了廣(guang)泛應(ying)用。現有(you)文(wen)(wen)獻關于(yu)(yu)中(zhong)國(guo)(guo)宏觀層面的(de)(de)(de)碳(tan)排(pai)放(fang)(fang)估(gu)算(suan)(suan)(suan)較多(Wang et al.，2005;Wu et al.，2006;杜立民，2010;宋德(de)勇等，2009)，但針對中(zhong)國(guo)(guo)工(gong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)能源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)碳(tan)排(pai)放(fang)(fang)的(de)(de)(de)估(gu)算(suan)(suan)(suan)較少(shao)且估(gu)算(suan)(suan)(suan)結果(guo)較為(wei)粗(cu)略(lve)，從分行業(ye)(ye)(ye)、分地區(qu)的(de)(de)(de)視(shi)角對工(gong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)能源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)碳(tan)排(pai)放(fang)(fang)進行全(quan)面核算(suan)(suan)(suan)的(de)(de)(de)更(geng)少(shao)(Liu et al.，2007;王強(qiang) 等，2011)。為(wei)彌補(bu)相關研(yan)究對中(zhong)國(guo)(guo)工(gong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)能源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)碳(tan)排(pai)放(fang)(fang)估(gu)算(suan)(suan)(suan)過于(yu)(yu)粗(cu)略(lve)的(de)(de)(de)不(bu)足，本文(wen)(wen)利用IPCC(2006)所介紹的(de)(de)(de)碳(tan)排(pai)放(fang)(fang)核算(suan)(suan)(suan)方法，對1998—2010年(nian)期間中(zhong)國(guo)(guo)不(bu)同部(bu)門能源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)碳(tan)排(pai)放(fang)(fang)、不(bu)同地區(qu)工(gong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)能源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)碳(tan)排(pai)放(fang)(fang)及(ji)(ji)工(gong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)細分行業(ye)(ye)(ye)能源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)碳(tan)排(pai)放(fang)(fang)進行全(quan)面、系統核算(suan)(suan)(suan)，構(gou)建一個較為(wei)翔實的(de)(de)(de)面板(ban)數據(ju)集(ji)，以期能為(wei)相關理論研(yan)究與政(zheng)策(ce)決策(ce)提(ti)(ti)供數據(ju)參考。

二、工業能源碳排放核算方法

1.碳源界定

碳(tan)(tan)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)是(shi)(shi)相對(dui)于碳(tan)(tan)匯而言的(de)(de)專門術語(yu)，是(shi)(shi)指從地球表面進入大(da)氣(qi)或者大(da)氣(qi)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)其(qi)他(ta)物質轉(zhuan)化(hua)為(wei)(wei)的(de)(de)活(huo)動，包括自然源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)和人為(wei)(wei)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)，其(qi)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)人為(wei)(wei)碳(tan)(tan)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)被認為(wei)(wei)是(shi)(shi)大(da)氣(qi)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)濃度增(zeng)加的(de)(de)主要原因。根據(ju) IPCC(2006)對(dui)溫室氣(qi)體排放(fang)(fang)(fang)(fang)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)的(de)(de)五(wu)類(lei)(lei)劃分，碳(tan)(tan)排放(fang)(fang)(fang)(fang)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)可相應的(de)(de)分為(wei)(wei)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)活(huo)動、工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)業(ye)(ye)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)過(guo)(guo)(guo)程(cheng)與產(chan)(chan)(chan)品(pin)使用(yong)、農(nong)業(ye)(ye)林業(ye)(ye)和其(qi)他(ta)土(tu)地利用(yong)、廢棄物及(ji)其(qi)他(ta)五(wu)類(lei)(lei)。在(zai)上述五(wu)類(lei)(lei)碳(tan)(tan)排放(fang)(fang)(fang)(fang)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)，與工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)業(ye)(ye)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)直接相關的(de)(de)是(shi)(shi)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)活(huo)動和工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)業(ye)(ye)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)過(guo)(guo)(guo)程(cheng)與產(chan)(chan)(chan)品(pin)使用(yong)，其(qi)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)，能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)活(huo)動包括能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)、能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)加工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)與轉(zhuan)換、能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)消(xiao)費及(ji)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)物質燃燒(shao)，工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)業(ye)(ye)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)過(guo)(guo)(guo)程(cheng)與產(chan)(chan)(chan)品(pin)使用(yong)是(shi)(shi)指工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)業(ye)(ye)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)過(guo)(guo)(guo)程(cheng)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)非(fei)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)燃燒(shao)③。由(you)于工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)業(ye)(ye)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)過(guo)(guo)(guo)程(cheng)排放(fang)(fang)(fang)(fang)對(dui)行(xing)業(ye)(ye)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)藝(yi)與生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)條件(jian)敏感性(xing)較強，不同行(xing)業(ye)(ye)差異較大(da)，本文中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)業(ye)(ye)碳(tan)(tan)排放(fang)(fang)(fang)(fang)僅(jin)限于化(hua)石能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)燃燒(shao)產(chan)(chan)(chan)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)的(de)(de)碳(tan)(tan)排放(fang)(fang)(fang)(fang)，不包含工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)業(ye)(ye)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)過(guo)(guo)(guo)程(cheng)碳(tan)(tan)排放(fang)(fang)(fang)(fang)及(ji)非(fei)燃料(liao)用(yong)途的(de)(de)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)碳(tan)(tan)排放(fang)(fang)(fang)(fang)，用(yong)于原料(liao)、還(huan)原劑(ji)或非(fei)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)用(yong)途(如潤(run)滑劑(ji)、固體石蠟、溶劑(ji))的(de)(de)碳(tan)(tan)流量應從中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)排除。由(you)于生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)物質燃燒(shao)主要存在(zai)于農(nong)村居(ju)民消(xiao)費，工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)業(ye)(ye)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)(chan)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)極少使用(yong)，故不納入工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)業(ye)(ye)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)碳(tan)(tan)排放(fang)(fang)(fang)(fang)核算范圍。工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)業(ye)(ye)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)碳(tan)(tan)排放(fang)(fang)(fang)(fang)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)分類(lei)(lei)如表1所示。

2.核算方法

IPCC(2006)提(ti)供了基于衡(heng)算(suan)法估(gu)(gu)算(suan)化(hua)石能(neng)源(yuan)碳(tan)排(pai)(pai)放的部(bu)門方法④(Sectorial Approach)和參考方法(Reference Approach)⑤。本文采用部(bu)門法對工業能(neng)源(yuan)碳(tan)排(pai)(pai)放進行(xing)估(gu)(gu)算(suan)，具體計算(suan)公式為：

式中(zhong)，E代表(biao)能(neng)源消耗的(de)實物量，i代表(biao)能(neng)源種類(lei)，NCV為(wei)能(neng)源的(de)平均低(di)位發(fa)熱(re)量(IPCC稱為(wei)凈發(fa)熱(re)值)，CEF為(wei)單位熱(re)值當量的(de)碳排放因子，COF是碳氧(yang)化因子(化石燃料中(zhong)只(zhi)有很小一部(bu)分碳在燃燒(shao)過程中(zhong)不會被氧(yang)化，99%～100%的(de)碳都被氧(yang)化了，故缺省值設為(wei)1)，44和(he)12分別為(wei)和(he)C的(de)分子量。

對(dui)于國別碳(tan)(tan)(tan)(tan)排(pai)(pai)(pai)(pai)放(fang)(fang)(fang)(fang)(fang)的(de)(de)估(gu)算(suan)(suan)存在(zai)消(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)費者原(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)則(ze)、生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)者原(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)則(ze)及混合責任原(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)則(ze)的(de)(de)爭議(Lenzen et al.，2007; Andrew and Forgie，2008)。本文僅針對(dui)工(gong)業(ye)層面的(de)(de)碳(tan)(tan)(tan)(tan)排(pai)(pai)(pai)(pai)放(fang)(fang)(fang)(fang)(fang)進(jin)行估(gu)算(suan)(suan)，根(gen)據面板數(shu)據估(gu)算(suan)(suan)對(dui)象的(de)(de)特征，一(yi)次(ci)能源碳(tan)(tan)(tan)(tan)排(pai)(pai)(pai)(pai)放(fang)(fang)(fang)(fang)(fang)核(he)(he)算(suan)(suan)全(quan)部(bu)(bu)(bu)采取終(zhong)端(duan)能源消(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)費原(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)則(ze)，電力(li)(熱(re)(re)力(li))碳(tan)(tan)(tan)(tan)排(pai)(pai)(pai)(pai)放(fang)(fang)(fang)(fang)(fang)根(gen)據核(he)(he)算(suan)(suan)層次(ci)的(de)(de)不同(tong)，按(an)終(zhong)端(duan)消(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)費原(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)則(ze)或實際(ji)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)原(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)則(ze)進(jin)行核(he)(he)算(suan)(suan)。具(ju)體地說(shuo)，在(zai)核(he)(he)算(suan)(suan)工(gong)業(ye)碳(tan)(tan)(tan)(tan)排(pai)(pai)(pai)(pai)放(fang)(fang)(fang)(fang)(fang)總量時(shi)，電力(li)(熱(re)(re)力(li))生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)導致的(de)(de)碳(tan)(tan)(tan)(tan)排(pai)(pai)(pai)(pai)放(fang)(fang)(fang)(fang)(fang)按(an)終(zhong)端(duan)消(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)費比例分(fen)(fen)配到相應產(chan)(chan)業(ye);在(zai)核(he)(he)算(suan)(suan)省(sheng)級工(gong)業(ye)能源碳(tan)(tan)(tan)(tan)排(pai)(pai)(pai)(pai)放(fang)(fang)(fang)(fang)(fang)時(shi)，火電(熱(re)(re)力(li))生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)中釋(shi)放(fang)(fang)(fang)(fang)(fang)的(de)(de)碳(tan)(tan)(tan)(tan)排(pai)(pai)(pai)(pai)放(fang)(fang)(fang)(fang)(fang)按(an)終(zhong)端(duan)消(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)費原(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)則(ze)進(jin)行省(sheng)際(ji)分(fen)(fen)攤(tan)，以體現(xian)省(sheng)際(ji)碳(tan)(tan)(tan)(tan)排(pai)(pai)(pai)(pai)放(fang)(fang)(fang)(fang)(fang)的(de)(de)公平性;在(zai)核(he)(he)算(suan)(suan)工(gong)業(ye)細分(fen)(fen)行業(ye)碳(tan)(tan)(tan)(tan)排(pai)(pai)(pai)(pai)放(fang)(fang)(fang)(fang)(fang)時(shi)，按(an)實際(ji)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)者原(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)則(ze)將(jiang)火電(熱(re)(re)力(li))碳(tan)(tan)(tan)(tan)排(pai)(pai)(pai)(pai)放(fang)(fang)(fang)(fang)(fang)全(quan)部(bu)(bu)(bu)計入火電(熱(re)(re)力(li))生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)(chan)部(bu)(bu)(bu)門，不向其(qi)他(ta)部(bu)(bu)(bu)門分(fen)(fen)攤(tan)，以體現(xian)行業(ye)真(zhen)實碳(tan)(tan)(tan)(tan)排(pai)(pai)(pai)(pai)放(fang)(fang)(fang)(fang)(fang)責任。

3.參數設定

依據(ju)(1)式估算工(gong)業(ye)能(neng)源(yuan)排放(fang)量時，需(xu)要利用工(gong)業(ye)各(ge)類(lei)(lei)能(neng)源(yuan)的消耗量，并(bing)需(xu)要對各(ge)類(lei)(lei)能(neng)源(yuan)的平均(jun)低位發(fa)(fa)熱(re)量、碳氧(yang)化因(yin)子和(he)碳排放(fang)因(yin)子等參數值進行(xing)設定，相關參數設定如表2所(suo)示(shi)。各(ge)化石燃料的平均(jun)低位發(fa)(fa)熱(re)量取自(zi)(zi)《中(zhong)(zhong)國能(neng)源(yuan)統計年鑒(jian)》附錄4，其(qi)(qi)中(zhong)(zhong)，型煤、其(qi)(qi)他石油(you)制(zhi)品(pin)和(he)其(qi)(qi)他焦化產品(pin)的凈發(fa)(fa)熱(re)值取自(zi)(zi)IPCC(2006)第二卷(juan)第一(yi)章(zhang)中(zhong)(zhong)的表1.2。

由于(yu)研(yan)究(jiu)的(de)(de)時間范圍僅限于(yu)1998—2010年(nian)，在這一較短的(de)(de)時期內(nei)，假定各類化石能源的(de)(de)碳(tan)排(pai)(pai)放(fang)因(yin)(yin)子變化微小以至可以忽略，而火(huo)力(li)發電(dian)及供(gong)熱的(de)(de)燃料(liao)構(gou)成及技術條(tiao)件隨時間有較大變化，不同年(nian)度的(de)(de)電(dian)力(li)與(yu)熱力(li)排(pai)(pai)放(fang)因(yin)(yin)子需要具體測算(suan)。本文先根據火(huo)電(dian)(供(gong)熱)部(bu)門在發電(dian)(供(gong)熱)中(zhong)的(de)(de)各類燃料(liao)消耗量及其碳(tan)排(pai)(pai)放(fang)系數來計(ji)算(suan)火(huo)電(dian)(供(gong)熱)排(pai)(pai)放(fang)量，然后除以當年(nian)全部(bu)電(dian)力(li)及熱力(li)供(gong)應量可得

到平均(jun)電力(熱力)排放(fang)因子，結果如表3所示。

三、基于部門比較的工(gong)業能(neng)源碳(tan)排放估(gu)算

 為便于(yu)(yu)考察(cha)中(zhong)國(guo)工(gong)(gong)業(ye)(ye)能源(yuan)(yuan)碳(tan)排(pai)放(fang)(fang)的(de)(de)變遷，先(xian)核(he)算(suan)(suan)(suan)工(gong)(gong)業(ye)(ye)總體(ti)能源(yuan)(yuan)排(pai)放(fang)(fang)水平(ping)，并將(jiang)其與其他部(bu)門(men)(men)(men)排(pai)放(fang)(fang)水平(ping)比(bi)較(jiao)，以突出其地位(wei)的(de)(de)重(zhong)要(yao)(yao)性。《中(zhong)國(guo)能源(yuan)(yuan)統計年(nian)鑒》中(zhong)的(de)(de)《中(zhong)國(guo)能源(yuan)(yuan)平(ping)衡表》將(jiang)能源(yuan)(yuan)終端(duan)消費(fei)分(fen)成七個部(bu)門(men)(men)(men)進行報(bao)告，這七個部(bu)門(men)(men)(men)分(fen)別為農林(lin)牧漁水利業(ye)(ye)、工(gong)(gong)業(ye)(ye)、建(jian)筑業(ye)(ye)、交通(tong)運輸倉儲及(ji)郵(you)電(dian)(dian)通(tong)訊業(ye)(ye)、批(pi)發和零售(shou)貿易餐(can)飲業(ye)(ye)、生(sheng)活消費(fei)及(ji)其他。利用表中(zhong)所(suo)提供(gong)的(de)(de)各部(bu)門(men)(men)(men)全(quan)部(bu)19種終端(duan)能源(yuan)(yuan)消費(fei)⑥的(de)(de)實(shi)物量(liang)(去除原(yuan)料(liao)用途的(de)(de)能源(yuan)(yuan)消費(fei))來(lai)估(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)算(suan)(suan)(suan)部(bu)門(men)(men)(men)排(pai)放(fang)(fang)量(liang)，遵循完(wan)全(quan)終端(duan)能源(yuan)(yuan)消費(fei)原(yuan)則，先(xian)計算(suan)(suan)(suan)一次能源(yuan)(yuan)終端(duan)消費(fei)碳(tan)排(pai)放(fang)(fang)，電(dian)(dian)力(熱力)生(sheng)產導致的(de)(de)碳(tan)排(pai)放(fang)(fang)按其終端(duan)消費(fei)比(bi)例(li)分(fen)配到相應終端(duan)消費(fei)部(bu)門(men)(men)(men)，電(dian)(dian)力輸配損失所(suo)含碳(tan)排(pai)放(fang)(fang)忽略不計。再將(jiang)本(ben)(ben)文(wen)(wen)估(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)算(suan)(suan)(suan)的(de)(de)中(zhong)國(guo)排(pai)放(fang)(fang)總量(liang)分(fen)別與國(guo)際能源(yuan)(yuan)署(IEA，2011)、美(mei)國(guo)橡(xiang)樹(shu)嶺(ling)國(guo)家實(shi)驗室信息分(fen)析中(zhong)心(CDIAC，2011)估(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)算(suan)(suan)(suan)的(de)(de)中(zhong)國(guo)排(pai)放(fang)(fang)數據進行比(bi)較(jiao)(見圖1)，本(ben)(ben)文(wen)(wen)估(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)算(suan)(suan)(suan)結(jie)果(guo)大體(ti)上位(wei)于(yu)(yu)IEA與 CDIAC的(de)(de)估(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)算(suan)(suan)(suan)結(jie)果(guo)之間。由(you)于(yu)(yu)CDIAC估(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)算(suan)(suan)(suan)結(jie)果(guo)包含了水泥(ni)排(pai)放(fang)(fang)量(liang)，而本(ben)(ben)文(wen)(wen)及(ji)IEA的(de)(de)估(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)算(suan)(suan)(suan)結(jie)果(guo)均不含水泥(ni)排(pai)放(fang)(fang)，因而，CDIAC估(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)算(suan)(suan)(suan)數據要(yao)(yao)高于(yu)(yu)本(ben)(ben)文(wen)(wen)及(ji)IEA的(de)(de)估(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)算(suan)(suan)(suan)數據;本(ben)(ben)文(wen)(wen)估(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)算(suan)(suan)(suan)結(jie)果(guo)與IEA估(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)算(suan)(suan)(suan)結(jie)果(guo)非(fei)常接(jie)近(兩(liang)者(zhe)差異程(cheng)度小于(yu)(yu)5%)，說明(ming)本(ben)(ben)文(wen)(wen)的(de)(de)估(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)算(suan)(suan)(suan)方法與估(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)算(suan)(suan)(suan)結(jie)果(guo)較(jiao)為可靠。

圖(tu)1描述了中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)能(neng)(neng)源排(pai)(pai)放(fang)(fang)隨時間(jian)遞增的(de)變化趨(qu)勢(shi)，反映(ying)的(de)是中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)排(pai)(pai)放(fang)(fang)總量的(de)變化趨(qu)勢(shi)，不能(neng)(neng)顯示工(gong)業能(neng)(neng)源排(pai)(pai)放(fang)(fang)在其中(zhong)(zhong)所(suo)占的(de)份(fen)(fen)額及重要地(di)位。圖(tu)2進一步描述了中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)能(neng)(neng)源排(pai)(pai)放(fang)(fang)的(de)部門構成，在1998—2010年(nian)期間(jian)，各部門能(neng)(neng)源排(pai)(pai)放(fang)(fang)份(fen)(fen)額沒有發(fa)生明顯的(de)變化，工(gong)業能(neng)(neng)源排(pai)(pai)放(fang)(fang)一直(zhi)占據了70%左右(you)的(de)份(fen)(fen)額。

圖1　1998—2010年(nian)中國能源碳排放(fang)量估算結(jie)果(guo)及比(bi)較

資料來(lai)源(yuan)：根據(ju)IEA(2011)、CDIAC(2011)及本文估算數(shu)據(ju)整理

圖2 1998—2010年中國(guo)終端(duan)能源消費碳排放的部(bu)門構(gou)成

圖3進(jin)一(yi)步描(miao)述(shu)了中國(guo)工(gong)業能(neng)源排(pai)放與全國(guo)能(neng)源排(pai)放隨時間(jian)變(bian)化(hua)的(de)趨(qu)勢。從中可以看出(chu)，自2001年(nian)以來，工(gong)業能(neng)源排(pai)放增(zeng)(zeng)長速度(du)明顯加快，2003年(nian)后增(zeng)(zeng)長速度(du)雖(sui)趨(qu)于下降，但工(gong)業排(pai)放的(de)年(nian)增(zeng)(zeng)長速度(du)基本上(shang)均在10%以上(shang)，這與此間(jian)中國(guo)工(gong)業經濟重工(gong)業化(hua)發(fa)展的(de)傾向有關(guan)。

 圖3 1998—2010年中國工業(ye)能源碳排放(fang)及其年增長率(lv)

四(si)、分地區的(de)工業(ye)能源碳排放估算(suan)

利用《中國(guo)能(neng)(neng)源統計年鑒(jian)》中的(de)(de)(de)《地區能(neng)(neng)源平衡表》提供的(de)(de)(de)地區工業19種(zhong)(zhong)細分能(neng)(neng)源終端消費(fei)量(liang)(實(shi)物(wu)量(liang))，對中國(guo)內(nei)地30個(ge)省級行(xing)政(zheng)區(西藏自治(zhi)區因統計數(shu)據缺失(shi)嚴重(zhong)而未納入)的(de)(de)(de)工業能(neng)(neng)源排放(fang)進行(xing)估算(suan)與比(bi)較。由于不同(tong)種(zhong)(zhong)類(lei)的(de)(de)(de)能(neng)(neng)源碳排放(fang)系數(shu)存在(zai)差(cha)異(yi)，不同(tong)地區的(de)(de)(de)工業能(neng)(neng)源消費(fei)結構(gou)也有差(cha)異(yi)，為(wei)減少對一(yi)次能(neng)(neng)源采(cai)取煤炭、石油(you)和天然(ran)氣的(de)(de)(de)粗略劃分可能(neng)(neng)引致(zhi)的(de)(de)(de)估算(suan)誤差(cha)，本文利用前(qian)述(1)式，根(gen)據19種(zhong)(zhong)細分能(neng)(neng)源終端消費(fei)量(liang)(去除原(yuan)料(liao)用途的(de)(de)(de)能(neng)(neng)源消費(fei))和相應能(neng)(neng)源的(de)(de)(de)碳排放(fang)系數(shu)來推算(suan)各地工業能(neng)(neng)源排放(fang)量(liang)。

根據(ju)終(zhong)端(duan)消(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)者原(yuan)則，對火(huo)(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(熱(re)力(li)(li)(li)(li)(li))生產(chan)(chan)中(zhong)釋(shi)放(fang)(fang)(fang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)碳(tan)(tan)(tan)排(pai)放(fang)(fang)(fang)進行(xing)省際分(fen)(fen)攤(tan)，盡管電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)消(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)過程本(ben)(ben)身不產(chan)(chan)生碳(tan)(tan)(tan)排(pai)放(fang)(fang)(fang)，但對一(yi)個(ge)特定區域而言，其(qi)(qi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)生產(chan)(chan)地(di)(di)(di)(di)與(yu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)消(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)地(di)(di)(di)(di)并非完全(quan)一(yi)致，本(ben)(ben)文按照工業(ye)(ye)(ye)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)實際使用地(di)(di)(di)(di)原(yuan)則⑦來(lai)合(he)理分(fen)(fen)攤(tan)火(huo)(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)生產(chan)(chan)過程中(zhong)釋(shi)放(fang)(fang)(fang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)碳(tan)(tan)(tan)排(pai)放(fang)(fang)(fang)，這(zhe)對于一(yi)些電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)(火(huo)(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian))生產(chan)(chan)大省和電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)輸出大省而言更(geng)具公(gong)平(ping)性。其(qi)(qi)中(zhong)，各(ge)地(di)(di)(di)(di)熱(re)力(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)與(yu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)碳(tan)(tan)(tan)排(pai)放(fang)(fang)(fang)系數(shu)(shu)(shu)需(xu)要估算(suan)。由(you)于熱(re)力(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)通常由(you)本(ben)(ben)地(di)(di)(di)(di)供給，熱(re)力(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)碳(tan)(tan)(tan)排(pai)放(fang)(fang)(fang)系數(shu)(shu)(shu)根據(ju)《地(di)(di)(di)(di)區能源(yuan)平(ping)衡表》中(zhong)供熱(re)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)細分(fen)(fen)能源(yuan)投入(ru)(ru)數(shu)(shu)(shu)量(liang)及(ji)其(qi)(qi)碳(tan)(tan)(tan)排(pai)放(fang)(fang)(fang)系數(shu)(shu)(shu)直(zhi)接進行(xing)計(ji)算(suan);各(ge)地(di)(di)(di)(di)工業(ye)(ye)(ye)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)消(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)可能含(han)有外(wai)地(di)(di)(di)(di)成分(fen)(fen)，由(you)于無法(fa)獲得本(ben)(ben)地(di)(di)(di)(di)工業(ye)(ye)(ye)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)耗中(zhong)外(wai)地(di)(di)(di)(di)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)比(bi)例及(ji)其(qi)(qi)具體來(lai)源(yuan)地(di)(di)(di)(di)，各(ge)地(di)(di)(di)(di)工業(ye)(ye)(ye)終(zhong)端(duan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)消(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)產(chan)(chan)生的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)碳(tan)(tan)(tan)排(pai)放(fang)(fang)(fang)用本(ben)(ben)地(di)(di)(di)(di)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)碳(tan)(tan)(tan)排(pai)放(fang)(fang)(fang)系數(shu)(shu)(shu)與(yu)本(ben)(ben)地(di)(di)(di)(di)工業(ye)(ye)(ye)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)消(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)量(liang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)乘積(ji)來(lai)計(ji)算(suan)(本(ben)(ben)地(di)(di)(di)(di)與(yu)外(wai)地(di)(di)(di)(di)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)碳(tan)(tan)(tan)排(pai)放(fang)(fang)(fang)系數(shu)(shu)(shu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)差異忽(hu)略不計(ji))，本(ben)(ben)地(di)(di)(di)(di)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)碳(tan)(tan)(tan)排(pai)放(fang)(fang)(fang)系數(shu)(shu)(shu)等于本(ben)(ben)地(di)(di)(di)(di)火(huo)(huo)力(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)發電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)產(chan)(chan)生的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)碳(tan)(tan)(tan)排(pai)放(fang)(fang)(fang)除以本(ben)(ben)地(di)(di)(di)(di)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)生產(chan)(chan)總量(liang)，本(ben)(ben)地(di)(di)(di)(di)火(huo)(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)碳(tan)(tan)(tan)排(pai)放(fang)(fang)(fang)根據(ju)《地(di)(di)(di)(di)區能源(yuan)平(ping)衡表》中(zhong)火(huo)(huo)力(li)(li)(li)(li)(li)發電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)各(ge)種(zhong)細分(fen)(fen)能源(yuan)投入(ru)(ru)來(lai)計(ji)算(suan)。

利用上述(shu)方(fang)法(fa)對中國30個省(sheng)(sheng)級行政區(qu)(qu)1998—2010年(nian)(nian)(nian)的(de)(de)(de)工(gong)(gong)(gong)業(ye)排(pai)放(fang)(fang)量進(jin)行估算，各省(sheng)(sheng)區(qu)(qu)工(gong)(gong)(gong)業(ye)排(pai)放(fang)(fang)變動趨(qu)勢如圖4所示。圖中各省(sheng)(sheng)區(qu)(qu)分布次序(xu)依照1998年(nian)(nian)(nian)工(gong)(gong)(gong)業(ye)排(pai)放(fang)(fang)由高到低排(pai)列。可以看出，1998年(nian)(nian)(nian)工(gong)(gong)(gong)業(ye)排(pai)放(fang)(fang)最多的(de)(de)(de)是(shi)江蘇省(sheng)(sheng)(1.62億(yi)噸(dun)(dun))，最少的(de)(de)(de)是(shi)海(hai)南省(sheng)(sheng)(僅為0.02億(yi)噸(dun)(dun));2010年(nian)(nian)(nian)工(gong)(gong)(gong)業(ye)排(pai)放(fang)(fang)最多的(de)(de)(de)是(shi)山(shan)東省(sheng)(sheng)(6.36億(yi)噸(dun)(dun))，最少的(de)(de)(de)仍是(shi)海(hai)南省(sheng)(sheng)(0.11億(yi)噸(dun)(dun));除北(bei)京(jing)2010年(nian)(nian)(nian)工(gong)(gong)(gong)業(ye)排(pai)放(fang)(fang)比1998年(nian)(nian)(nian)略(lve)有(you)下(xia)降外，其他省(sheng)(sheng)區(qu)(qu)2010年(nian)(nian)(nian)工(gong)(gong)(gong)業(ye)排(pai)放(fang)(fang)均比1998年(nian)(nian)(nian)有(you)了較大幅(fu)度的(de)(de)(de)增加。從年(nian)(nian)(nian)平均增長(chang)率(lv)(lv)來(lai)看，只(zhi)有(you)北(bei)京(jing)年(nian)(nian)(nian)均增長(chang)率(lv)(lv)略(lve)為負(fu)(-0.23%)，特別是(shi)自2008年(nian)(nian)(nian)奧運會以來(lai)，北(bei)京(jing)工(gong)(gong)(gong)業(ye)排(pai)放(fang)(fang)出現了連續下(xia)降趨(qu)勢，這可能與近年(nian)(nian)(nian)來(lai)北(bei)京(jing)大量的(de)(de)(de)重工(gong)(gong)(gong)業(ye)外遷及(ji)嚴格的(de)(de)(de)環境管制有(you)關;其他地區(qu)(qu)工(gong)(gong)(gong)業(ye)排(pai)放(fang)(fang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)平均增長(chang)率(lv)(lv)均為正，其中，年(nian)(nian)(nian)平均增長(chang)率(lv)(lv)超過10%的(de)(de)(de)省(sheng)(sheng)區(qu)(qu)有(you)海(hai)南、河北(bei)、內蒙(meng)古、福建(jian)、山(shan)東、河南、云南、陜西(xi)、寧夏和新(xin)疆(jiang)。

圖4　1998—2010年(nian)中國(guo)省際(ji)工業排放量變動趨勢

為(wei)(wei)考察不同區(qu)域(yu)工業(ye)(ye)排(pai)(pai)放(fang)(fang)(fang)差異，本文沿用(yong)東(dong)部(bu)(bu)、中(zhong)部(bu)(bu)和(he)西(xi)(xi)(xi)部(bu)(bu)三(san)區(qu)域(yu)劃(hua)分法，東(dong)部(bu)(bu)包(bao)括北京、天津、河(he)(he)北、遼寧、山(shan)東(dong)、廣(guang)東(dong)、海南(nan)、福建(jian)、上海、浙江、江蘇11省區(qu)，中(zhong)部(bu)(bu)包(bao)括山(shan)西(xi)(xi)(xi)、河(he)(he)南(nan)、安徽、江西(xi)(xi)(xi)、湖(hu)北、湖(hu)南(nan)、吉(ji)林(lin)、黑龍江8省區(qu)，西(xi)(xi)(xi)部(bu)(bu)包(bao)括重慶、廣(guang)西(xi)(xi)(xi)、四川、貴(gui)州、云南(nan)、陜西(xi)(xi)(xi)、甘肅、青海、寧夏、新疆、內蒙古11省區(qu)(未(wei)含西(xi)(xi)(xi)藏)。東(dong)部(bu)(bu)、中(zhong)部(bu)(bu)與(yu)西(xi)(xi)(xi)部(bu)(bu)的(de)工業(ye)(ye)排(pai)(pai)放(fang)(fang)(fang)占全國的(de)份額分別為(wei)(wei)51.1%、28.3%、20.6%，顯然，東(dong)部(bu)(bu)是全國工業(ye)(ye)排(pai)(pai)放(fang)(fang)(fang)的(de)主(zhu)要區(qu)域(yu)。三(san)大區(qu)域(yu)工業(ye)(ye)排(pai)(pai)放(fang)(fang)(fang)變動(dong)具(ju)有明顯的(de)階段性特(te)征(zheng)，從圖5中(zhong)可看出(chu)(chu)，在1998—2001年(nian)期間，三(san)大區(qu)域(yu)工業(ye)(ye)排(pai)(pai)放(fang)(fang)(fang)增長趨勢(shi)緩慢，這與(yu)東(dong)南(nan)亞金融危機后的(de)工業(ye)(ye)產(chan)品出(chu)(chu)口減少與(yu)工業(ye)(ye)增長放(fang)(fang)(fang)緩及當時的(de)工業(ye)(ye)結構調整有關(guan);到2001年(nian)以后，東(dong)部(bu)(bu)、中(zhong)部(bu)(bu)與(yu)西(xi)(xi)(xi)部(bu)(bu)的(de)工業(ye)(ye)排(pai)(pai)放(fang)(fang)(fang)量均出(chu)(chu)現了加速增長趨勢(shi)，這與(yu)中(zhong)國加入WTO后出(chu)(chu)口貿易擴張及再次出(chu)(chu)現的(de)重工業(ye)(ye)化趨勢(shi)有關(guan)。

圖(tu)5　1998—2010年三大區(qu)域工業排放(fang)變(bian)動趨(qu)勢(shi)

五(wu)、工業(ye)細分行業(ye)能源碳排放估算(suan)

1.工業行業劃分

國(guo)民(min)(min)(min)經濟(ji)行(xing)(xing)業分類(lei)(lei)(lei)的首個(ge)(ge)國(guo)家標(biao)準(zhun)是《國(guo)民(min)(min)(min)經濟(ji)行(xing)(xing)業分類(lei)(lei)(lei)和代(dai)碼》(GB 4754-84)，先后于1994年、2002年和2011年進(jin)行(xing)(xing)了修訂，2002年修訂版改名為(wei)《國(guo)民(min)(min)(min)經濟(ji)行(xing)(xing)業分類(lei)(lei)(lei)標(biao)準(zhun)》(GB/T 4754-2002)。本文研究的時間范(fan)圍為(wei)1998—2010年，1998—2002年適用《國(guo)民(min)(min)(min)經濟(ji)行(xing)(xing)業分類(lei)(lei)(lei)和代(dai)碼》(GB 4754-94)，2003—2010年適用《國(guo)民(min)(min)(min)經濟(ji)行(xing)(xing)業分類(lei)(lei)(lei)標(biao)準(zhun)》(GB/T 4754-2002)。在這兩個(ge)(ge)不同版本的分類(lei)(lei)(lei)標(biao)準(zhun)中，均將(jiang)工業分為(wei)3個(ge)(ge)門類(lei)(lei)(lei)：采礦業、制造業、

電(dian)力(li)熱力(li)燃(ran)氣及水生產(chan)和供應業;但有(you)關大類(lei)、中類(lei)和小(xiao)類(lei)的(de)劃(hua)分(fen)有(you)變動⑧，CB/T 4754-94有(you)37個兩(liang)位(wei)數(shu)(shu)工業行業，GB/T 4754-2002有(you)39個兩(liang)位(wei)數(shu)(shu)工業行業。為保(bao)證統計數(shu)(shu)據的(de)連續(xu)性(xing)與可比性(xing)，本(ben)文選取兩(liang)個分(fen)類(lei)標準共有(you)的(de)36個兩(liang)位(wei)數(shu)(shu)工業行業作為樣本(ben)對(dui)象。

36個兩位數工業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)行業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)全(quan)稱及(ji)(ji)本文對其(qi)編碼如(ru)下：煤(mei)炭采(cai)選業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(H1)、石油(you)和(he)(he)天(tian)然氣開采(cai)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(H2)、黑色金(jin)(jin)(jin)屬(shu)(shu)礦采(cai)選業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(H3)、有色金(jin)(jin)(jin)屬(shu)(shu)礦采(cai)選業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(H4)、非(fei)金(jin)(jin)(jin)屬(shu)(shu)礦采(cai)選業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(H5)、農副食品(pin)(pin)(pin)加(jia)(jia)工業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(H6)、食品(pin)(pin)(pin)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)(zao)(zao)(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(H7)、飲(yin)料(liao)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)(zao)(zao)(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(H8)、煙草(cao)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)品(pin)(pin)(pin)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(H9)、紡(fang)織(zhi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(H10)、紡(fang)織(zhi)服裝(zhuang)鞋帽制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)(zao)(zao)(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(H11)、皮革毛皮羽毛(絨)及(ji)(ji)其(qi)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)品(pin)(pin)(pin)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(H12)、木材(cai)加(jia)(jia)工及(ji)(ji)木竹藤棕草(cao)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)品(pin)(pin)(pin)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(H13)、家具制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)(zao)(zao)(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(H14)、造(zao)(zao)(zao)(zao)紙及(ji)(ji)紙制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)品(pin)(pin)(pin)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(H15)、印刷業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)和(he)(he)記錄媒介(H16)、文教體育(yu)用品(pin)(pin)(pin)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)(zao)(zao)(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(H17)、石油(you)加(jia)(jia)工煉(lian)(lian)焦及(ji)(ji)核燃料(liao)加(jia)(jia)工業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(H18)、化(hua)學原料(liao)及(ji)(ji)化(hua)學制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)品(pin)(pin)(pin)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(H19)、醫(yi)藥(yao)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)(zao)(zao)(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(H20)、化(hua)學纖維制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)(zao)(zao)(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(H21)、橡膠制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)品(pin)(pin)(pin)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(H22)、塑料(liao)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)品(pin)(pin)(pin)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(H23)、非(fei)金(jin)(jin)(jin)屬(shu)(shu)礦物制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)品(pin)(pin)(pin)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(H24)、黑色金(jin)(jin)(jin)屬(shu)(shu)冶煉(lian)(lian)及(ji)(ji)壓(ya)延(yan)加(jia)(jia)工業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(H25)、有色金(jin)(jin)(jin)屬(shu)(shu)冶煉(lian)(lian)及(ji)(ji)壓(ya)延(yan)加(jia)(jia)工業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(H26)、金(jin)(jin)(jin)屬(shu)(shu)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)品(pin)(pin)(pin)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(H27)、通(tong)用設(she)(she)備(bei)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)(zao)(zao)(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(H28)、專用設(she)(she)備(bei)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)(zao)(zao)(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(H29)、交通(tong)運輸設(she)(she)備(bei)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)(zao)(zao)(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(H30)、電氣機械及(ji)(ji)器材(cai)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)(zao)(zao)(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(H31)、通(tong)信設(she)(she)備(bei)計(ji)算機及(ji)(ji)其(qi)他電子設(she)(she)備(bei)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)(zao)(zao)(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(H32)、儀(yi)器儀(yi)表(biao)及(ji)(ji)文化(hua)辦(ban)公用機械制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)(zao)(zao)(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(H33)、電力熱(re)力生產和(he)(he)供應業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(H34)、燃氣生產和(he)(he)供應業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(H35)、水(shui)生產和(he)(he)供應業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(H36)。

2.工業(ye)行業(ye)碳排(pai)放(fang)

在核算36個兩(liang)位數工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)行(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)排(pai)放(fang)(fang)(fang)時，火電(dian)及供熱(re)(re)產(chan)生(sheng)的排(pai)放(fang)(fang)(fang)按(an)(an)照生(sheng)產(chan)者原則(ze)計(ji)入(ru)電(dian)力(li)(li)(熱(re)(re)力(li)(li))生(sheng)產(chan)行(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)，不(bu)再分攤計(ji)入(ru)其(qi)他(ta)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)行(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)，以(yi)明確各(ge)行(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)真實(shi)碳(tan)排(pai)放(fang)(fang)(fang)責任。也就是(shi)說，其(qi)他(ta)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)行(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)排(pai)放(fang)(fang)(fang)僅涉及一(yi)次能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)終端(duan)消(xiao)費(fei)產(chan)生(sheng)的排(pai)放(fang)(fang)(fang)，而電(dian)力(li)(li)(熱(re)(re)力(li)(li))行(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)排(pai)放(fang)(fang)(fang)則(ze)包括兩(liang)大部(bu)分，一(yi)部(bu)分是(shi)該部(bu)門一(yi)次能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)終端(duan)消(xiao)費(fei)產(chan)生(sheng)的排(pai)放(fang)(fang)(fang)，另一(yi)部(bu)分是(shi)電(dian)力(li)(li)(熱(re)(re)力(li)(li))轉(zhuan)換過程中因化(hua)石(shi)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)燃(ran)燒產(chan)生(sheng)的排(pai)放(fang)(fang)(fang)。能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)消(xiao)費(fei)數據來(lai)自《中國(guo)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)統計(ji)年鑒》中的《工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)分行(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)終端(duan)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)消(xiao)費(fei)量(實(shi)物量)表》，為了能(neng)(neng)充分反映不(bu)同工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)行(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)的能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)消(xiao)費(fei)結構特征(zheng)，選(xuan)取(qu)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)分行(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)19種細分能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)終端(duan)消(xiao)費(fei)量。由于(yu)按(an)(an)終端(duan)消(xiao)費(fei)原則(ze)估算時電(dian)力(li)(li)(熱(re)(re)力(li)(li))碳(tan)排(pai)放(fang)(fang)(fang)分攤到(dao)其(qi)他(ta)部(bu)門，工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)部(bu)門只分攤其(qi)中的一(yi)部(bu)分，所以(yi)，按(an)(an)生(sheng)產(chan)者原則(ze)估算的工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)碳(tan)排(pai)放(fang)(fang)(fang)一(yi)般(ban)要(yao)高于(yu)按(an)(an)終端(duan)消(xiao)費(fei)原則(ze)估算的結果(guo)。

在《中(zhong)國能源(yuan)(yuan)統計(ji)年(nian)鑒(jian)》中(zhong)，無(wu)論是(shi)《分(fen)(fen)品種能源(yuan)(yuan)平衡(heng)(heng)表》還是(shi)《地方能源(yuan)(yuan)平衡(heng)(heng)表》，均沒有提供(gong)(gong)各工業(ye)行業(ye)原料用(yong)途的能源(yuan)(yuan)消費(fei)量(liang)，《中(zhong)國能源(yuan)(yuan)平衡(heng)(heng)表》提供(gong)(gong)了(le)工業(ye)能源(yuan)(yuan)消費(fei)中(zhong)原料用(yong)途的消費(fei)量(liang)，大多數細(xi)分(fen)(fen)能源(yuan)(yuan)用(yong)于原料用(yong)途的比例約占5%。因此(ci)，在對(dui)各工業(ye)行業(ye)能源(yuan)(yuan)碳排放(fang)估算中(zhong)，本文均按5%比例扣減各細(xi)分(fen)(fen)行業(ye)原料消費(fei)的非燃碳排放(fang)。

工業(ye)(ye)行業(ye)(ye)排放及其變(bian)動趨勢如(ru)表4所示。年(nian)(nian)均(jun)(jun)排放1億噸以(yi)上的(de)(de)行業(ye)(ye)有(you)電(dian)力熱力生(sheng)產和(he)供應業(ye)(ye)、石油加(jia)工煉焦及核燃料(liao)加(jia)工業(ye)(ye)、黑(hei)色(se)金(jin)(jin)屬冶煉及壓(ya)延(yan)加(jia)工業(ye)(ye)、非金(jin)(jin)屬礦物制品業(ye)(ye)、化學原料(liao)及化學制品制造業(ye)(ye)。1998—2002年(nian)(nian)期(qi)間(jian)排放年(nian)(nian)均(jun)(jun)增長率為負(fu)的(de)(de)行業(ye)(ye)有(you)17個(ge);2003—2010年(nian)(nian)期(qi)間(jian)年(nian)(nian)均(jun)(jun)增長率為負(fu)的(de)(de)行業(ye)(ye)減至6個(ge);1998—2010年(nian)(nian)期(qi)間(jian)絕大多數行業(ye)(ye)排放年(nian)(nian)均(jun)(jun)增長率為正，少數行業(ye)(ye)排放有(you)下降趨勢，如(ru)化學纖維(wei)制造業(ye)(ye)、文教體育用(yong)品制造、煙草制品業(ye)(ye)等。

六、主要結論

鑒于(yu)現(xian)有文獻對(dui)中國(guo)工(gong)(gong)業(ye)(ye)碳排(pai)放估(gu)算(suan)過于(yu)粗略或(huo)籠統，本文利用IPCC(2006)介(jie)紹的碳排(pai)放核(he)算(suan)部門方法，基(ji)于(yu)30個省級行(xing)(xing)政區和36個兩位數(shu)(shu)工(gong)(gong)業(ye)(ye)行(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)的工(gong)(gong)業(ye)(ye)能(neng)(neng)源消費(fei)數(shu)(shu)據(ju)，對(dui)1998—2010年(nian)中國(guo)工(gong)(gong)業(ye)(ye)能(neng)(neng)源碳排(pai)放總(zong)量、地區工(gong)(gong)業(ye)(ye)能(neng)(neng)源碳排(pai)放量及工(gong)(gong)業(ye)(ye)細(xi)分行(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)能(neng)(neng)源碳排(pai)放進行(xing)(xing)了(le)(le)全(quan)面估(gu)算(suan)，為(wei)工(gong)(gong)業(ye)(ye)節能(neng)(neng)減排(pai)與(yu)低碳轉型(xing)研究與(yu)決策(ce)提供了(le)(le)較為(wei)可(ke)靠的數(shu)(shu)據(ju)支持。從面板(ban)數(shu)(shu)據(ju)估(gu)算(suan)結(jie)果中可(ke)得到以下主要結(jie)論(lun)：

(1)工業(ye)是中國(guo)能(neng)源(yuan)碳(tan)排放(fang)(fang)的(de)(de)(de)絕對主體(ti)，在低(di)(di)碳(tan)經濟轉型(xing)(xing)中占有重(zhong)要(yao)的(de)(de)(de)戰略地位。工業(ye)能(neng)源(yuan)碳(tan)排放(fang)(fang)占據(ju)全部(bu)能(neng)源(yuan)碳(tan)排放(fang)(fang)的(de)(de)(de)70%左(zuo)右，自中國(guo)新一輪重(zhong)工業(ye)化趨(qu)(qu)勢(shi)(shi)以來，工業(ye)碳(tan)排放(fang)(fang)基本(ben)保持了10%以上的(de)(de)(de)年增(zeng)長速度，且繼續(xu)呈(cheng)現增(zeng)長趨(qu)(qu)勢(shi)(shi)。因此，推(tui)動中國(guo)低(di)(di)碳(tan)經濟發(fa)展方式轉變，關鍵在于如何促進工業(ye)節能(neng)減排與工業(ye)發(fa)展轉型(xing)(xing)，使工業(ye)成為引領中國(guo)低(di)(di)碳(tan)經濟轉型(xing)(xing)的(de)(de)(de)典范。

(2)從工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)業(ye)碳(tan)排(pai)(pai)放的地(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)分布(bu)來看，除(chu)北京市外，其他(ta)省區(qu)(qu)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)業(ye)碳(tan)排(pai)(pai)放年均增長(chang)率均為正(zheng);東(dong)部(bu)、中部(bu)與西部(bu)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)業(ye)碳(tan)排(pai)(pai)放自2001年以來均出現了加速增長(chang)趨勢，三大區(qu)(qu)域(yu)的工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)業(ye)碳(tan)排(pai)(pai)放份(fen)額分別為51%、28%、21%。我國工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)業(ye)碳(tan)排(pai)(pai)放主要集中分布(bu)在(zai)東(dong)部(bu)沿海地(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)，尤(you)其是(shi)環渤海地(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)，因此(ci)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)業(ye)節能減排(pai)(pai)應(ying)考慮地(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)差異(yi)及區(qu)(qu)域(yu)比(bi)較(jiao)優勢，需要因地(di)(di)制宜(yi)地(di)(di)引導低碳(tan)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)業(ye)發(fa)展(zhan)。東(dong)部(bu)沿海地(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)業(ye)經(jing)濟基礎(chu)較(jiao)好(hao)，應(ying)該發(fa)揮節能減排(pai)(pai)與低碳(tan)轉型的示范帶頭作用。國家發(fa)展(zhan)改革委員會于(yu)2010年在(zai)廣東(dong)、遼寧、湖北、陜西、云南5省和天(tian)津(jin)、重慶、深圳、廈門、杭州(zhou)、南昌、貴陽、保定8市推行(xing)低碳(tan)試點工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)作，這些試點省市在(zai)地(di)(di)理位置(zhi)、資源稟賦、經(jing)濟發(fa)展(zhan)水平等方面(mian)存在(zai)較(jiao)大差異(yi)，有(you)(you)很(hen)強的樣(yang)本(ben)代表意義(yi)，可以為探(tan)索不同類型的地(di)(di)區(qu)(qu)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)業(ye)節能減排(pai)(pai)和低碳(tan)發(fa)展(zhan)的體制機制提供有(you)(you)益(yi)經(jing)驗。

(3)從工業(ye)碳(tan)排(pai)(pai)放(fang)的(de)(de)行(xing)(xing)業(ye)差異來看，除少數行(xing)(xing)業(ye)碳(tan)排(pai)(pai)放(fang)呈下(xia)降(jiang)趨(qu)勢(shi)，絕大多數行(xing)(xing)業(ye)碳(tan)排(pai)(pai)放(fang)呈增長趨(qu)勢(shi)。能(neng)源開采與加工、金屬(shu)冶煉、設(she)備制(zhi)造(zao)及化(hua)工制(zhi)品等行(xing)(xing)業(ye)是中國(guo)工業(ye)高(gao)(gao)(gao)排(pai)(pai)放(fang)部(bu)門(men)，這些(xie)部(bu)門(men)對中國(guo)工業(ye)節(jie)能(neng)減(jian)(jian)排(pai)(pai)有至關重(zhong)要的(de)(de)影響。因(yin)此(ci)，應該加大高(gao)(gao)(gao)能(neng)耗高(gao)(gao)(gao)排(pai)(pai)放(fang)部(bu)門(men)的(de)(de)技術(shu)引進與技術(shu)改造(zao)，加強節(jie)能(neng)減(jian)(jian)排(pai)(pai)技術(shu)的(de)(de)推(tui)廣與商業(ye)化(hua)應用，提高(gao)(gao)(gao)行(xing)(xing)業(ye)能(neng)源利用效率。同(tong)時，應大力發展低(di)碳(tan)戰略(lve)新興產(chan)業(ye)和高(gao)(gao)(gao)技術(shu)產(chan)業(ye)，尤其是新能(neng)源與環保(bao)產(chan)業(ye)，實現技術(shu)減(jian)(jian)排(pai)(pai)與結構(gou)減(jian)(jian)排(pai)(pai)的(de)(de)協同(tong)效應，在(zai)全球低(di)碳(tan)競爭中推(tui)動工業(ye)結構(gou)優化(hua)升級與發展方(fang)式轉變。

注釋：

①國(guo)際(ji)溫室氣(qi)體排放(fang)數據開(kai)發機(ji)構提供各國(guo)碳排放(fang)清(qing)(qing)單，但僅限(xian)于國(guo)家層面的宏觀數據，不涉(she)及特定國(guo)家具體部(bu)門和地區的碳排放(fang)清(qing)(qing)單，這些(xie)機(ji)構主要有美(mei)國(guo)能(neng)源(yuan)信(xin)息(xi)署(shu)(EIA)、美(mei)國(guo)橡樹嶺國(guo)家實驗(yan)室信(xin)息(xi)分析中心(CDIAC)、世(shi)界資源(yuan)研究所(WRI)和國(guo)際(ji)能(neng)源(yuan)署(shu)(IEA)。

②工業生產投入內含(han)的(de)碳(主要來自化石(shi)能(neng)源)在其(qi)燃(ran)燒過程(cheng)中會產生，假設化石(shi)燃(ran)料中的(de)碳等于其(qi)所有衍生產物中的(de)總含(han)碳量(liang)(liang)，那么，根據化石(shi)能(neng)源投入量(liang)(liang)、含(han)碳量(liang)(liang)及其(qi)氧化率就可以計(ji)算出排放(fang)量(liang)(liang)。

③比如水泥與石灰(hui)生產過(guo)程中的石灰(hui)石煅燒分解釋放(fang)的等。

④部門方(fang)法有三(san)種，從方(fang)法1到方(fang)法3對數據(ju)精度要(yao)求越來(lai)越高。

⑤參考方法(fa)是一種自上而(er)下的估算(suan)方法(fa)，不考慮化(hua)石燃(ran)料的中間轉換，只考慮各種類型燃(ran)料使用而(er)不區分各類燃(ran)

料在不同部門(men)的消耗情(qing)況(kuang)，相對(dui)自下而(er)上的部門(men)方(fang)法(fa)，更易(yi)于獲取相關數據，計(ji)算方(fang)便(bian)簡(jian)捷(jie)，是(shi)IPCC所(suo)推薦的缺省方(fang)法(fa)。

⑥19種細分(fen)能源包括原煤(mei)、洗精煤(mei)、其(qi)他(ta)洗煤(mei)、型煤(mei)、焦(jiao)炭(tan)、原油(you)、汽油(you)、煤(mei)油(you)、柴(chai)油(you)、燃料(liao)油(you)、液化石油(you)氣(qi)(qi)、煉廠干氣(qi)(qi)、焦(jiao)爐煤(mei)氣(qi)(qi)、其(qi)他(ta)煤(mei)氣(qi)(qi)、天然(ran)氣(qi)(qi)、其(qi)他(ta)石油(you)制品、其(qi)他(ta)焦(jiao)化制品、電(dian)力和熱力。

⑦國際地方(fang)環境行動委員會(hui)于(yu)2009年發布的(de)《國際地方(fang)政(zheng)府溫室氣體排(pai)放(fang)分析議(yi)定書》(International Local Government GHG Emissions Analysis Protocol)，對地方(fang)政(zheng)府(城市(shi))電力與熱力生產中的(de)碳(tan)排(pai)放(fang)也要求按(an)終端消(xiao)費原則分攤(tan)，該(gai)協會(hui)是一個(ge)致力于(yu)地方(fang)性(xing)、地區性(xing)和全球性(xing)環境問題的(de)地方(fang)政(zheng)府協會(hui)，共有1104個(ge)地方(fang)政(zheng)府(城市(shi))會(hui)員。

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